An exercise in WoT gambling on very, very silly timescales.


Update March 15, 2017 : A winrar is me!
(For Ben / For public)


Post-BitBet,i where’s a guy to throw some coin down and try his luck ? In-channel ofc.

ben_vulpes: pete_dushenski: Got odds on a fed rate hike during the first term of the Trumpenreich?
pete_dushenski: During entire first term ? ~100% on yes, rate hike.

ben_vulpes: If you want an easy hundo I’ll put it down on ‘no’, at 1:99 ;)
pete_dushenski: Lol so 0.14 BTC ?ii

ben_vulpes: Exchange rates to BTC/CAD aside.
pete_dushenski: How aside ? Is this a contract we’re hammering out or winky faces ?

ben_vulpes: But proximate to that, sure.
pete_dushenski: 100 USD is call it 0.14 BTC, 100 CAD is call it 0.1.

ben_vulpes: Eh, round to the nearest half, call it 0.15
pete_dushenski: Ok. So I’m shipping you 10 BTC if the US Federal Reserve fails to increase its prime lending rate but once in the next four years ? Sorry, 15 BTC.* A pretty penny!

ben_vulpes: Y’had me scratching my head there for a second.
pete_dushenski: I got the CAD #s stuck in my head for a sec ;/

ben_vulpes: Hey with all the couches you’re buying.
pete_dushenski: Dude, in four years 15 BTC could quite possibly buy ~my house~.

ben_vulpes: I know.
pete_dushenski: Heh. anyways, if you’re serious I’ll take you up on it.

ben_vulpes: If I understand the math here, you’d only stake 14.85. Hundred percent odds implies that you’d be on the hook for 21M BTC.
pete_dushenski: Aha.
ben_vulpes: Anyways draft a contract if the notion appeals. If 15 buys a house, .15 might get you a car!iii

pete_dushenski drafting
ben_vulpes tacoing

~~~A short while later~~~ 

—–BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE—–
Hash: SHA512

I, Pete Dushenski, identified by RSA key fingerprint E662 5CC1 4638 C4CA 4046 94E9 1657 4992 9F9A 6BDD, do hereby promise to remit 14.85 BTC to Ben Vulpes, if the United States’ Federal Reserve fails to increase the upper and lower bounds of the “Federal Funds Target Rate” range by at least one tenth of one percent (0.1%) each, at least one (1) time, between January 20th, 2017 and January 20th, 2021.

I, Ben Vulpes, identifed by RSA key fingerprint 4F79 0794 2CA8 B89B 01E2 5A76 2AFA 1A9F D2D0 31DA, do hereby promise to remit 0.15 BTC to Pete Dushenski should the United States’ Federal reserve increase the upper and lower bound of the “Federal Funds Target Rate” range by at least one tenth of one percent (0.1%) each, at any time between January 20th, 2017 and January 20th, 2021.

The winning party shall deliver a notice of resolution signed by his aforementioned key to the losing party, including an address to which the losing party shall remit the Bitcoin due. The losing party shall remit payment within seven (7) days of receipt of valid notice. Disputes are to be resolved by the Lordship of the Most Serene Republic of Bitcoin, wherever it shall hold court at the time of resolution.
—–BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE—–

iQEcBAEBCgAGBQJYL1/xAAoJEM7/K1z0jN1FdHQIALMo2R/JrtCAOeRq+Z9prD6g tWziSTmmiJA5vJYVf8Ioi1Fgr1GklviUSbNaLeDr/PFm4RYTw7I52TxE6No7HKyd 03LusnbGvcKUraGthvE1fkHaqkcsCrDUJVp7kdQlyq1gsUleZlRnWKltfx9ad9LY SrRSMuvG6aDE1CxhRKTIX+R15cTbGEwfiyhDJ6Uc/O6N4d0AuyYM3oO39u46sZVC aJl25l8bL2gE51yr1NsJC2jxNQT7nquS6Sh9eEmVbeHmXQkTEfR1bM3eOkr+yVeH QOsegRHcFDxAwBMgfsjZOM4k5mAE/Mz2kSdkIVaRBD4dZqNyCoLsHlde2HsgQTA= =a7fm
—–END PGP SIGNATURE—–

Deed here.

And that’s how two crazy jews who’ve never met each other yet have known each other for give or take three years came up with a ludicrous bet that could potentially resolve upwards of fifty months from now when a single bitcent is worth… well, who the hell knows ?

It’s all a bit silly. But that’s what makes it fun!

___ ___ ___

  1. Ever since BitBet was sold off to unknown quanitity and e-mail insecurity expert Znort987, it’s been struggling something fierce to regain the attention of the high-rollers it once attracted. Even the highly consistent wording and re-spinning of old wagers of the overwhelming majority of their newly proposed bets would indicate that the house is drafting them, rather than the once vital community that previously found refuge from Vegas’ clutches.

    And now here we are, back where we started, betting reputations as much as pocketbooks between gentlemen in good standing. Plus ca change. []

  2. So fixated was I on the conversion rate that I failed to negotiate the odds!!!11 Worst. Jew. Ever. []
  3. And oh how I love cars and love even more putting the proceeds of gambling directly into something tangible lest I gamble away my gains! Seriously, if 0.15 BTC is worth enough, Ima hire a coachbuilder to turn either Jay or Saddam (or whatever long-wheelbase piece of kit I have in the garage atm) into a motherfucking longroofian wonderment (eg. this or this ). So help me! []

9 thoughts on “An exercise in WoT gambling on very, very silly timescales.

  1. PeterL says:

    Who wins if the rate is lowered and then is raised back to the current level?

  2. […] don’t vote, I make bets. Interested parties, apply within. […]

  3. […] Ben or I massively regret this bet ? Stay tuned to find out! […]

  4. […] what I let pass for wording on certain bets, the Trumpreich is off to the races. Make no mistake. […]

  5. […] in NYC where the market is already sizzling like Donny circa 1999 but could slow down with interest rate increases barring further […]

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