Part of me wants to see BTC in the hundreds again… the rest of me knows that this is what it was built for.

Just to expand on what I said yesterday regarding Bitcoin’s power as an inflation hedge, as recently as last weekend, I sorta kinda wanted to actually see BTC go into the hundreds of dollars per coin again. But why ? Had I lost my mind ? Had I lost my faith ? Or was I just looking to scoop up more coins cheap cheap ?

Upon deeper reflection, what I actually wanted was to commiserate with those around me who see the sky falling and know that it’s not just Chicken Little screaming anymore.i There will genuinely be hard months and years ahead as the elusive force known only as “confidence” is rebuilt and economies are repaired, and part of me wants to be along for that ride. While I love being a contrarian, more than almost anything, and I was starting to enjoy modest levels of consumerist excess, I wasn’t quite ready to be “last man standing” with the Dow at 5`000 and BTC at 50`000. Writing this now, with the Dow precariously perched at 20`000 and BTC surging back up to 6`200, I’m not sure that I’ll have a choice, even if we do see BTC values prices in the hundreds again before we see tens of thousands again. This moment in history is what Bitcoin was designed for.ii This is its time to shine. When we buy BTC, this is the deal, even the expectation. It’s “uncorrelated” over any reasonable time horizon, even if it can follow panics over the course of a few days, and it can’t be inflated away by political whim. No matter how dire the emergency, the code is the code.

Reminding myself of these fundamentals this last day or soiii has been incredibly calming.iv So what if the bling-bling-fuck-you-look-at-me-rapper fad is replaced by a more community-minded  approach.v The material shit just isn’t that important. Before long, those of us fortunate enough to ride out this crisis relativelyvi  unscathed are going to have an opportunity, nay, a responsibility, to help our communities recover. We should look forward to the challenge. I do.

Times of crisis bring clarity. They remind us just how much of our time and energy is normally sucked up my extraneous, unproductive, and non-essential bullshit. They also remind us what’s really important, and what will actually determine our survival, and ultimately our legacies as well. Flexin’ will take a backseat, which is well overdue. The IG-fueled mania of phony, cheap-credit, umami-flavoured lifestyles was grotesque and ripe for reset. So here she comes.

Whatever lies ahead, the world will be a different place. But no matter how hard viruses try to pave over the ground, lifevii always finds a way to grow through the cracks. To life, to life…

___ ___ ___

  1. With Western Canadian Select (WCS) oil current trading at a laugh-so-you-don’t-cry price of $5.43/barrel, my home province of Alberta is in for the shit-kicking of the century. Our best bet is to focus entirely on Natural Gas and coal production for use in local Bitcoin mines, something I suggested almost 6 years ago, and which is finally poised to happen if there’s even a shred of dignity and self-preservation left in 2021.
  2. You thought the printing presses worked overtime in ’08 ? You ain’t seen nuffin’ yet. Expect the US financial aid package to be MINIMUM TEN TRILLION compared to “only” hundreds of billions twelve years ago. What else could that do but cause massive inflation and even more perverse bubbles ?
  3. A day feels like a week, a week obviously feels like a month. “What a year this month has been!” is currently one of my favourite memes. Oh how fitting an URWERK 103T would be for times like these. Though I’m currently finding comfort in the vintage 1950’s Tudor Precision steel dress piece that I’m “borrowing” from my father after I had it serviced recently. In times of crisis, the latest/greatest feels awfully shallow compared to pieces that have lived through darker days than these.
  4. Almost too calming ? I have to watch that I don’t start feeling too invincible when the world is so fragile and hungry for scapegoats. If I’ve learned anything from my people’s history, it’s to be very mindful of a damaged community’s need for cathartic release and not to be caught at the pointy end of the stick!
  5. Call it “stealth wealth” or what have you but Japan has been playing this game properly for the last 29 years since the Nikkei bubble burst. And you wonder why Journe and Dufour do so well there, but RM is more of a Chinese thing ? That’s definitely a part of it.

    But if you ask me, the AP “John Shaeffer” is a more tempting choice for this coming decade.

  6. It’s all relative. On the other side of this crisis, we’ll all know people who die, people who lose their jobs, and their savings. No one will get through this completely unscathed. It’s not possible, nor even desirable. We will all suffer in our own ways.
  7. There are actually very interesting philosophical debates to be had around whether or not viruses are “alive.” Definitionally, I’m inclined to say that they aren’t, but if you’d like to take the contrary position, leave your arguments in the comments below!

4 thoughts on “Part of me wants to see BTC in the hundreds again… the rest of me knows that this is what it was built for.

  1. > it can’t be inflated away by political whim

    “Soft inflation”, via the printing of “verily, you are owed some BTC, We Promise!” papers — works just fine, from the “prevention of 50,000 $ BTC” POV. Just like it’s been working for gold.

    At least while the paper fluff markets remain in business.

  2. Trinque says:

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